SENATE COMMITTEE ON

 TRANSPORTATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

 

 

January 22, 2003                                                                                                     Hearing Room C

8:00 AM                                                                                                                          Tapes  2 - 3

 

MEMBERS PRESENT:         Sen. Rick Metsger, Chair

Sen. Bruce Starr, Vice-Chair

Sen. Ryan Deckert

Sen. David Nelson

 

STAFF PRESENT:                 Amy Joyce, Committee Administrator

Annastasia Suess, Committee Assistant

 

MEASURE/ISSUES HEARD:             Informational Meeting

                                                            Economic Development Issues

                                                            Economic Projections

 

These minutes are in compliance with Senate and House Rules.  Only text enclosed in quotation marks reports a speaker’s exact words.  For complete contents, please refer to the tapes.

 

TAPE/#

Speaker

Comments

Tape 2, A

005

Chair Metsger

Calls meeting to order at 8:00 am. and opens an informational meeting.

INFORMATIONAL MEETING

010

Tom Potiowsky

Office of Economic Analysis, State Economist. Presents slide show. Submits written material (EXHIBIT A).

060

Potiowsky

Continues and highlights weak economy concerns as of 9/11/2001.

060

Potiowsky

Discusses economic issues:

·         Weak economy concerns as of 9/11/2001

·         Technology Employment in Oregon from 1972 to 2001

·         Employment sector comparisons to neighboring states

220

Sen. Starr

Asks about the remarkable jumps in the recession graph.

225

Potiowsky

Explains the graph tracks changes by quarters.

230

Sen. Starr

Comments on the quarterly bounces in percentages.

235

Potiowsky

Continues discussing economic issues:

·         Unemployment rates compared to several states in the US

·         Employment growth in Oregon

·         Technology forecasts in Oregon

·         Construction job forecasts in Oregon

TAPE 3, A

010

Potiowsky

Continues discussing economic issues:

·         Risk factors to the 2003-2005 forecast in Oregon

·         Potential impact of war with Iraq including change in oil prices.

050

Chair Metsger

Asks about the forecasted drop in oil prices.

055

Potiowsky

Explains the risk factor of increasing/decreasing oil prices.

065

Chair Metsger

Asks in the event of a war with Iraq, how will Oregon differ from other states in the US with our current economic situation.

075

Potiowsky

Answers and provides further information.

110

Potiowsky

Continues and discusses risk factors in energy prices forecasts for 2003-2005.

115

Sen. Deckert

Asks about the long-term prognosis of energy prices if weather patterns hold and water is abundant.

120

Potiowsky

Explains the future of energy prices with comparable outcomes.

140

Sen. Deckert

Asks for confirmation of the ability to assure high-energy users that the fundamentals should return and the competitive advantage should return.

150

Potiowsky

Responds.

160

Potiowsky

Continues discussing economic issues:

·         Risk factors to the stock market forecast for 2003-2005 in Oregon

·         State and Local government risk factors to the 2003-2005 forecast in Oregon

210

Sen. Deckert

Asks about ways to quantify a relatively progressive tax increase.

225

Potiowsky

Describes opposing standpoints.

245

Sen. Starr

Comments on the views presented by Potiowsky.

250

Potiowsky

Offers further explanation on dollar-for-dollar spending.

300

Sen. Nelson

Cites a Union County study regarding rural county wage reductions if Measure 28 fails.

340

Potiowsky

Continues presentation:

·         High technology industry risk factors to the forecast 2003-2005 in Oregon

390

Potiowsky

Concludes.

400

Chair Metsger

Asks for possible projections on which economic sectors will have the most growth in Oregon by 2010.

TAPE 2, B

010

Potiowsky

Explains.

030

Chair Metsger

Asks if Oregon has competitive advantages in growth over other states.

040

Potiowsky

Responds that several larger distributors have entered the Eastern Oregon areas, and continue to provide positive advantages.

045

Sen. Deckert

Comments on simplified e-commerce sales tax nationally, and how that will negatively affect Oregon.

050

Potiowsky

Agrees that the growth that may have occurred may be affected by a simplified sales tax.  Explains some effects of a possible national e-commerce sales tax.

060

Chair Metsger

Comments on statement provided by Potiowsky.

090

Chair Metsger

Outlines coming meetings in the next two weeks.

120

Chair Metsger

Closes informational meeting. Adjourns meeting at 9:10 a.m.

 

 

EXHIBIT SUMMARY

 

A – Informational, presentation materials, Tom Potiowsky, 15 pp