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The Oregon Administrative Rules contain OARs filed through November 15, 2014
 
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OREGON UNIVERSITY SYSTEM, PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY

 

DIVISION 50

CENTER FOR POPULATION RESEARCH AND CENSUS

577-050-0005

Authority

(1) The Population and Research Center (PRC), was established in 1965 (then known as the Center for Population Research and Census) by the State Board of Higher Education, which delegated to it the state Census responsibilities set forth in ORS 190.510-190.610. These responsibilities include annually preparing population estimates for Oregon, its counties, and incorporated cities and towns.

(2) Chapter 574, Oregon Laws 2013 established the Oregon Population Forecast Program under PRC and requires PRC to prepare and issue population forecasts for cities and counties, for a 50-year period, for purposes of land use planning under ORS 195 and 197.

Stat. Auth.: ORS 190 & 195
Stats. Implemented:
Hist.: PSU 4-1978, f. & ef. 6-26-78; PSU 1-2014, f. & cert. ef. 6-23-14

577-050-0010

Purpose

(1) Rules at OAR 577-050-0015 through 577-050-0020 govern the procedures by which a county or city may obtain review of a population estimate made by the CPRC.

(2) Rules at 577-050-0030 through 577-050-0060 govern population forecasts for counties and cities, for a 50-year forecast period, for purposes of land use planning under ORS 195 through 197.

Stat. Auth.: ORS 190 & 195
Stats. Implemented:
Hist.: PSU 4-1978, f. & ef. 6-26-78; PSU 1-2014, f. & cert. ef. 6-23-14

577-050-0015

County Population Estimates

(1) Population Estimate: Under ORS 190.520, the CPRC annually estimates the population as of July 1 of each county in the State of Oregon.

(2) First Review Period: Preliminary county estimates are mailed to the designated county official by November 15th of the estimate year for review by the county. Since under ORS 190.520 the CPRC is required to certify county estimates by December 15th of the estimate year, the county has one month for review, questions, and challenges. If differences regarding the estimate are not resolved during the first review period, the CPRC will certify the preliminary estimate to the Secretary of State on December 15th of the estimate year.

(3) Second Review Period: A second review period is from December 15th of the estimate year to March 31st of the following year. This period is to allow counties to assemble and present data to the CPRC that could not be assembled during the initial review period. If differences between the county and the CPRC are resolved during the second review period the CPRC will issue a revised certificate of population for the county retroactive to December 31st of the estimate year.

(4) Review Data: Counties may supply the CPRC with data that can be used to evaluate the population estimate in question. Acceptable data are:

(a) Housing Data. To be considered in a CPRC review, housing data must reflect all additions to a county's housing stock from the last decennial federal census through the date of estimate. The data must meet the following criteria:

(A) All housing units constructed are identified by year and month of construction and type of unit. Specifically, the data show number of single units, number of units contained within multiple units (i.e., apartments, condominiums, townhouses, etc.), and mobile homes that are occupied and used as permanent residences;

(B) Building activity reports must exclude commercial construction and permits issued for home improvements or modifications, unless the modification involves conversion to another type of unit (i.e., single family unit modified to a multiple

unit). Data for each year must also show demolitions, removals, or housing units lost (fire, etc.), conversions, and abandonments or existing housing stock;

(C) Differences between numbers of permits issued and numbers of actual completed units must be reported. Only completed units can be added to the housing stock;

(D) Counties must differentiate between permits issued in incorporated cities within the county and permits issued for units in the unincorporated areas of the county. Additionally, all units reported for construction in the unincorporated areas of a county must be accompanied by a map (of such scale as to be easily identified) showing the location of such construction.

(b) Group Quarters Data. Counties should also report all persons not living in households (i.e., group quarters). These are defined as persons living in college or other educational institution dormitories; inmates of federal and state prisons, but only those serving term of more than one year; inmates of long-term care facilities; members of religious orders; and members of the armed forces living in military barracks;

(c) Utility Data: If the county chooses to supplement housing data with utility data the following criteria apply:

(A) The utility boundaries must be entirely comparable to the county boundaries;

(B) The coverage of the population by the utility must be evaluated against the last decennial census household county, i.e., the number of housing units serviced by the utility in the last decennial census year should be in general congruent with the number of occupied housing units enumerated in the last decennial census;

(C) Master meters must be accounted for -- The meter in use for an entire building misrepresents the number of residential units; in addition, conversions from master meters to individual meters must be reported;

(D) Vacant units that do not disconnect power between occupants (such as rental units and recreational units) cannot be reported as occupied residences.

(5) Enumeration or Survey: At any time during the first or second review period, the county may request that the CPRC conduct a complete enumeration or a sample survey of housing units and number of permanent residents to determine the population of the county. The enumeration or survey is performed at the cost of the requesting entity. If the census or survey is conducted before March 1 of the year following the December 15th certification, this population count is certified to the Secretary of State and to the Federal Bureau of the Census, and it is retroactive to December 31st of the estimate year. The CPRC determination is final. A census or survey is recognized as a final figure of the county's population by both state and federal governments.

Stat. Auth.: ORS 190
Stats. Implemented:
Hist.: PSU 4-1978, f. & cert. ef. 6-26-78

577-050-0020

City Population Estimates

(1) Population Estimate: Under ORS 190.520, the CPRC annually estimates the population as of July 1 of each incorporated city or town in the State of Oregon.

(2) First Review Period: Preliminary city estimates are mailed by November 15 to the designated city official in each incorporated city for review. Since under ORS 190.520 the CPRC is required to certify city estimates by December 15 of the estimate year, the city has one month in the first review period for questions and challenges. Unless resolution of differences between a city and the CPRC occurs during the month of the first review period, the CPRC will certify the preliminary population estimate to the Secretary of State on December 15 of the estimate year.

(3) Second Review Period: A second review period ensues from the December 15 certification date to March 31 of the following year. This period allows the cities to assemble and collect data which could not be assembled in the first review period. The CPRC will review additionally submitted data and notify the city whether their population estimate will be changed. If the CPRC changes the city's annual estimate, the revision will be certified March 31 retroactive to December 31 of the estimate year.

(4) Review Data: Cities may supply the CPRC with additional data that can be used to evaluate the population estimate in question. Acceptable review data are:

(a) Housing Data:

(A) Since incorporated cities provide the CPRC with annual building and demolition data by type of unit, these annual data may be reviewed by the city and by the CPRC. If the city has originally submitted incorrect building and demolition data, it must resubmit all building and demolition data broken down by month from the date of its last official census (either Federal or CPRC). The CPRC will then reevaluate the city's estimate and determine if an adjustment is to be made;

(B) Mobile home inventories may be reexamined and resubmitted for the estimate year in question if errors are found in city submitted data. The CPRC will reevaluate the city's estimate based on corrected mobile home input as of March 31 of the estimate year in question.

(b) Group Quarters Data: If a city has originally submitted incorrect data on group quarters population, it may resubmit a detailed summary of all group quarters facilities within the incorporated limits of the city, and their respective populations as of March 31 of the estimate year in question;

(c) Annexation Data: Since cities provide annexation data to the CPRC on a quarterly basis, these data may be reviewed by the city and the CPRC. If city-submitted annexation data are incomplete, the city may submit annexation questionnaires for each omitted annexation and schedules for each housing unit involved in each annexation. If there are more than 125 housing units in any single annexation, the CPRC must conduct the census of the annexation area at the city's expense. This additional population data will be used to reevaluate the city's estimate;

(d) Utility Data: If a city chooses to supplement housing data with utility data, the following criteria apply:

(A) The utility boundaries must be entirely comparable to the corporate limits of the city;

(B) The coverage of the population by the utility must be evaluated against the last decennial census household count, i.e., the number of housing units serviced by the utility in the last decennial census year should be in general agreement with the number of occupied housing units enumerated in the last decennial census year;

(C) Master meters must be accounted for -- One meter in use for an entire building misrepresents the number of residential units; in addition, conversions from master meters to individual meters must be checked;

(D) Care must be taken not to count vacant rental units that do not disconnect power between occupants.

(5) Enumeration or Survey: At any time during the first or second review period, the city may request that the CPRC conduct either a complete enumeration, or, for cities with populations greater than 5,000, a sample survey of housing units. The enumeration or survey is conducted at the expense of the requesting entity. The population determined by either the enumeration or survey will then be certified to the Secretary of State and to the U.S. Bureau of the Census. It should be noted that the U.S. Bureau of the Census recognizes CPRC conducted censuses and surveys and accepts CPRC figures for their Federal Revenue Sharing estimates. Censuses or surveys conducted before March 1 of the year following the December 15 certification will be certified March 31 retroactive to December 31 of the estimate year in question. The CPRC determination is final.

Stat. Auth.: ORS 190
Stats. Implemented:
Hist.: PSU 4-1978, f. & cert. ef. 6-26-78

Oregon Population Forecast Program

577-050-0030

Definitions

For the purposes of rules at OAR 577-050-0030 through 577-050-0070 concerning the Oregon Population Forecast Program, the following definitions apply:

(1) “Affected local government” means:

(a) A city or county for which the Portland State University PRC is preparing a population forecast;

(b) A county that contains all or part of a city or an urban growth boundary for which PRC is preparing a population forecast; and

(c) A local service district, as defined in ORS 174.116, that includes territory within the area subject to the population forecast.

(2) “Age-Specific cohorts” means five-year age groups, beginning with 0-4 and continuing through 80-84, with ages 85 years and over as the final age group.

(3) “Base year” means the year that begins the 50-year forecast period for a particular forecast.

(4) “Final Forecast” means the forecast issued by PRC after the formal review process and is deemed final by the PRC.

(5) “Forecast” means the population forecasts required by ORS 195 issued by PRC for each county and its respective cities for land use purposes in accordance with rules in this division. The geographic areas for which a city forecast is issued is the city’s urban growth boundary (UGB) at the base year of the forecast.

(6) “Interpolation” means widely used interpolation techniques for establishing single-year forecast intervals between each five-year interval produced by PRC.

(7) “Proposed Forecast” means the forecast provided by PRC prior to the formal review process.

(8) “Urban Growth Boundary” is defined at ORS 197.295(7).

Stat. Auth.: ORS 190 & 195
Stats. Implemented:
Hist.: PSU 1-2014, f. & cert. ef. 6-23-14

577-050-0040

Schedule and Details for Forecasts

(1) At least once every four years, and in accordance with the schedule described in this rule, PRC shall issue a 50-year forecast for:

(a) Each county except Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington Counties;

(b) The portions of Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington Counties that are not within Metro; and

(c) The area within each urban growth boundary (other than the urban growth boundary of Metro) at the time of the base year. For cities with UGBs that are located in more than one county, PRC shall issue forecasts for each part of the UGB (e.g. the City of Willamina’s forecast shall be issued separately for each of the portions of the UGB that are in Yamhill or Polk counties).

(2) County forecasts shall provide forecasted total population and forecasted population of age-specific cohorts in five-year intervals only for years ending in “0” and “5”.

(3) City UGB forecasts shall provide forecasted total population in five-year intervals only for years ending in “0” and “5”.

(4) If the base year does not end in “0” or “5” (e.g. 2015 or 2020), PRC shall provide a population estimate for the base year and for the next closest year ending in “0 or “5” followed by five-year intervals thereafter (e.g., for a base year of 2016, PRC shall produce a population estimate for 2016 and a forecast for 2020, followed by five-year forecast intervals thereafter). PRC shall provide a single-year forecast to complete the 50-year forecast horizon (e.g. for a base year of 2016, the end of the forecast horizon would be 2066 resulting in a single-year forecast interval for 2066, following the five-year interval ending in 2065).

(5) PRC shall provide an interpolation template posted to their website allowing calculation of single-year forecasts between each five-year interval.

(6) The first forecast cycle will span three years from July 2014 to June 2017. In the first forecast cycle, PRC shall release the forecasts in three annual increments. Each annual increment within this first forecast cycle will run from July 1 to June 30 of the following year, and will reflect the population on July 1.

(7) The first cycle of forecasts will be prepared and released in three groups, each consisting of roughly one-third of the counties and their corresponding cities (UGBs), as follows:

(a) Group one: Coos, Curry, Crook, Deschutes, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson, Josephine, Klamath, and Lane counties and their corresponding cities (UGBs) with a production period of July 2014 through June 2015.

(b) Group two: Baker, Grant, Gilliam, Harney, Hood River, Lake, Malheur, Morrow, Sherman, Umatilla, Union, Wasco, Wheeler, and Wallowa counties and their corresponding cities (UGBs) with a production period of July 2015 through June 2016.

(c) Group three: Benton, Clatsop, Columbia, Lincoln, Linn, Marion, Polk, Tillamook, and Yamhill counties and their corresponding cities (UGBs) and the portions of Clackamas, Multnomah, and Washington Counties outside of the Metro UGB and their corresponding cities (UGBs) with a production period of July 2016 through June 2017.

(8) The forecast cycles for years subsequent to the first forecast cycle will be determined by rule based on PRC evaluation of work load, efficiency, maintaining forecasts for counties and their corresponding cities every four years, and other considerations, as necessary.

Stat. Auth.: ORS 190 & 195
Stats. Implemented:
Hist.: PSU 1-2014, f. & cert. ef. 6-23-14

577-050-0050

Forecast Process and Deliverables

(1) PRC shall issue written or electronic notice of Proposed and Final forecasts to the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD), to affected local governments, and to members of the public who have requested notice. PRC shall maintain a web site allowing members of the public to request notice of forecast proceedings. Members of the public may request notice using the website or by written notice through the U.S. Mail.

(2) When preparing and issuing a forecast, PRC shall hold a minimum of one public meeting for each group of counties and cities included in the annual increment of the forecast cycle specified in OAR 577-050-0040(7) to gather, consider and, if appropriate, incorporate available data and information about local conditions received from affected local governments and from members of the public.

(3) PRC shall administer a questionnaire to affected local governments and to members of the public who have requested notice under subsection (1) for each forecast period described in OAR 577-050-0040. The questionnaire will compile information regarding local demographic, social, and economic characteristics and conditions. Responses to the survey questionnaire must be provided to PRC within 30 days for consideration in the proposed forecast. Information or documentation requested in the questionnaire may include, but is not limited to:

(a) Observations on changes in age and racial/ethnic composition of population;

(b) Planned new housing development (target population, number of new units and year of completion);

(c) Planned construction of group quarters facilities (type of facility and size);

(d) Likely future employers who have made a commitment to locate new employment generators to the area (including the type and number of employees and type of industry);

(e) Public information on infrastructure currently in place and changes that are expected to occur in the forecast period;

(f) Expected changes to zoning designations or density standards; and

(g) Adopted policies regarding population growth in a city’s comprehensive plan.

(4) Upon issuance, Proposed and Final forecasts, and accompanying reports, will be posted to the PRC website. The reports will include:

(a) A methodological statement;

(b) A summary of demographic trends; and

(c) Supporting data utilized in the development of the forecasts.

(5) Proposed forecasts and accompanying reports will be issued by March 15 for each forecast period described in OAR 577-050-0040. Notice of the release of the Proposed forecasts will be provided to DLCD, affected local governments, and members of the public who have requested notice under subsection (1) of this rule.

(6) Final forecasts and accompanying reports will be issued by June 30 for each forecast period described in OAR 577-050-0040. Notice of the release of the Final forecasts will be provided to DLCD, affected local governments, and members of the public who have requested notice under subsection (1) of this rule.

Stat. Auth.: ORS 190 & 195
Stats. Implemented:
Hist.: PSU 1-2014, f. & cert. ef. 6-23-14

577-050-0060

Review Process

(1) The formal review process begins when the forecast is posted on the website.

(2) Within 45 days after PRC issues a proposed forecast, a member of the public or an affected local government may file objections with PRC.

(3) If PRC does not receive an objection within the 45-day period, the proposed forecast becomes the final forecast.

(4) If PRC receives an objection within the 45-day period, PRC shall review the objection and either make appropriate changes to the proposed forecast or affirm the proposed forecast, at the discretion of PRC, and issue the final forecast.

(5) Objections to a Proposed forecast must be in writing, must be submitted via US Mail or electronic mail to PRC, and must include data or other information to support the objection. Acceptable data and information may include:

(a) Corrections or revisions to information that had been previously sent to PRC (OAR 577-050-0050 (3);

(b) New information that was obtained after submitting the completed questionnaire during the forecast development period.

(c) Evidence that any of the supporting information used to develop the forecasts is erroneous.

(d) Other information that PRC determines is relevant.

Stat. Auth.: ORS 190 & 195
Stats. Implemented:
Hist.: PSU 1-2014, f. & cert. ef. 6-23-14

577-050-0070

Submission of Information to Department of Land Conservation and Development

At the request of the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD), PRC shall submit its forecasting methodology and local data collection practices for review by an advisory committee established by that Department.

Stat. Auth.: ORS 190 & 195
Stats. Implemented:
Hist.: PSU 1-2014, f. & cert. ef. 6-23-14

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